So, I want to start looking at the situation on the ground.
I am going to be building my case. My case is: getting reliable data as near to 2016 (this year) as possible regarding how many registered voters by party affiliation are there in each state. More specifically breaking the states down to “prone to go Democratic” or “prone to go Republican”. Of course this does not nor can not predict how many in each party will actually show up to vote. If you have ever played Dungeons & Dragons think of this as “rolling the initiative die” (smile). So for initiative we will call this “I” and for “prone to go Dem” we will call it “P^D” and for “prone to go Republican” we will call it “P^R”.
I will rely partially on Charlie Cook because: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401248.html
Stay tuned as I build a case for deciphering the political odds in the near future.